Another year has come and passed, and I am yet again reminded that I have no clue what the Academy is thinking. But hey, that is a good thing. It means that I have a unique style, as I always knew I did. It also means that I got served a healthy dose of humbling, but it also means that a majority of the 228 entrants to this year’s 2018 Oscar Prediction Giveaway were eligible to win! (You have to look at the silver linings, I always say).
So, after a week of endless harassment from my wife (she beat my score this year as well), we have gone through all of the entries and found our winners, who have been contacted via email. Big congratulations to those winners, but that isn’t the only interesting part of this post. Today, I’ll be going through the hive mind, as it were, and see what the data from 228 sets of predictions show us. So let’s dive in!
2018 Oscar Results and Interesting Data
With 228 entries, this data will hardly be conclusive, but we did learn some interesting things from what we got. I’ll keep this short and simple, with the full set of results below.
- Of the 24 categories, the most voted for nominees won 21 times (87.5% accuracy, way to go everyone!).
- Coco winning Best Animated Feature was correctly predicted by 89% of entrants, which makes it the biggest landslide. The Darkest Hour winning for Makeup was a fairly close runner-up with 82.9%.
- Half of the categories (12 of the 24) had a majority consensus on the winner (50% or more voting for the same nominee).
- No one voted for Darkest Hour winning Best Cinematography (the only nominee not receiving a vote).
- Two people really phoned it in with only 3 correct predictions.
- Two people have clearly been colluding with the Academy and got 21 predictions correct.
- The average “score” for an entrant was 12.3 correct, so just over half.
- 64 out of 228 entries either tied my score (9) or got less correct.
We will be doing this again next year for sure and will do our best to get more data points, but on behalf of TheNerdMentality, thank you to everyone who participated!